How many guests to expect?

You always want to plan for every person attending, just in case. However, it's estimated that about 20% of people usually decline.

I’d plan for 200 but more likely it’d be closer to 150-180

I feel like you may have a larger than normal decline rate being that you chose the weekend after Thanksgiving.

I had my shower the Sunday after thanksgiving, and almost everyone showed up. I think maybe 3 people didn’t come, 1 even RSVPd yes so I don’t know what happened with that one (I never asked). I guess we had a 15% decline rate.
All guests were local.

Our guest list ended up at 201 and we have 126 confirmed and 49 declined. Out of the remaining, we believe only about half are definitely coming. This is perfect because we wanted to ended up between 140-160.

We invited 130 and so far have 3 declines so 6 people total. How many of your guests are out of town versus local? I would guess that put of town folks may decline more, especially if they are already traveling for Thanksgiving. Your local crowd should be good though, Thanksgiving wouldnt stop me attending a local wedding the weekend after. Still plan everything for 200 though because you never know! Could end up with 95% yesses!

This depends on a variety of factors… being that the wedding is the weekend after Thanksgiving, I would anticipate a larger decline rate than normal. Also, how far away is your venue? Where do you live… could weather be a factor?

We are inviting 200+ people to our wedding and anticipating roughly 150ish to show, being that it is a 1+ hr drive for the majority of our guests

Our guest list was 276. We have 172 in our final count. They say plan on 50-75% attendance.

Traditionally, around 20-30% will decline. However, with a Holiday, it could go either way. More people are off, but they make have other responsibilities/plans.

We had a ton of out of state guests, so we had 123 yes and 110 no!

I had about 20% decline rate