Planning

You shouldn't invite any more than you can afford or fit. There is no "safe" amount to over invite.

I would suggest only inviting the number of people you can afford. Most of the time, at least some people decline, but some people have gotten 100% of the invited guests to accept the invite. Since you said most people are traveling in from out of state, you'll likely have some guests decline, but to be safe, I still recommend only inviting the number of people you can afford in the event they all accept.

Most events have a 10% cancellation factor, but I can tell you from first hand, we wanted a smaller wedding and our number is growing because we anticipated a lot of "NOs" due to Covid and our guests are actually all saying YES for the same reason. We are all essential workers and everyone is ready for a break and using our wedding as their excuse to take some much needed time off. Fortunately financially we're fine with accommodating more, but if we weren't we would've been in a BIG surprise.

Only invite the amount you can actually host. We had a very low decline rate.

Like others have said, you should only afford the number of people that you can afford to host. Every wedding as a different decline rate. We invited approximately 150 people and had 90 say they would attend, but only had like 85 actually attend.

Agree with PPs that you should invite as many as you can host. for me, i had about a 20% decline rate

I agree not to over invite. We can only have 50 people at our reception venue due to restrictions so that’s what we invited. However, with that limit we can’t meet our catering minimum, so we want to get as close to 50 as we can. I know people would say it’s really rude (we’ve already personally talked to everyone and they understand), but if we get several declines there are a few people we had to cut that we would love to have and will extend an invite to within the next two weeks (still giving them 6 weeks before the wedding to plan).