i don’t know what to do :(

I think it just depends on your state and venue restrictions. We are getting married on that day as well. We will have a 50 person wedding if everyone comes. Your venue will probably have their own changes they made. Ex. Mine is only doing plated meals. And my state still has mass gathering limits. If we aren't able to invite everybody we want because of covid, we will just have my FH family, my parents and my sisters (all live locally except for 1 sister) because all my family would have to travel from out of state. We spoke with our venue and they have no problem live streaming it for us in the event that we have to cut down which is not ideal. I also think it's also up to you guys about what you feel comfortable with. We will be getting married that day either way all just depends on covid unfortunately. Never ever thought when planning something like this would happen.

Make a plan B and discuss with your VIP guests, your venue and vendors. Make sure you have a clear idea of restrictions now and plan for those to not be lifted in case not much changes.
For the bridal shower, I think people will understand and not be hurt if you have to lower your guest list for the wedding.

Covid will still be around by Spring. You need a backup plan.

View Quoted Comment We’re moving a month after the new day (we have to for my fiancé’s residency) so we would lose ALL of our deposits

My goal for next year is that I'm getting married no matter what. Even if its just a few family members able to attend and I would just cancel the big wedding.

I would have a backup plan. We cut our list by 250 people and just had 30 people at the wedding. We still had small, safe bridal showers because our other family and friends still wanted to celebrate with us even though they couldn’t be there on the big day. Everyone was understanding because it is a global pandemic.

Well the shower will be much closer to the wedding, right? So, re-evaluate guest list at that point. Otherwise, only invite VIPs to the shower that you are 100% you won't cut from the wedding because imo yes, it would be bad and rude if they got invited then later got a "jk but thanks for the gift."