Guest Count Underestimated

I assume all your vendors & venue will need a final count a month out (or two weeks out) especially food & drink. You'll also need it for things like tables & chairs, centerpieces, favors, menus, programs, etc. If your DJ is providing a dance floor, they need to know the size for the number of people. Your venue may not care, it just depends what your contract says.

Most things I've read say expect 100% attendance in terms of food and budget. I would start planning for the number of guests you invited.

We over-invited. Not intentionally, but there were some things we forgot to consider first. Therefore, we are making our RSVP deadline a little earlier than usual. That way we will have enough time to prepare our venue, vendors, and budget accordingly. Our wedding is June 29th, and I plan to send invites out around the beginning of March. I set the RSVP for May 4th. That will give us two months to get everything squared away. Like you, we have a lot of out of town guest I predict won't be able to come, and a good chunk of our list is kids (some people might bring them some might opt to get a sitter). So, if we can find out for sure who all is coming we can plan better. I made sure to put on my RSVP "# of adults____" and # of children____". It's too hard to try and guess who will or won't come.

Thanks for the advice! I made our rsvp deadline March 5th. I know some people won't RSVP but I'll bother them till I get an answer. I seriously thought we were only inviting 76% of the people we invited. I really don't know how my count was so off.

Tell your caterer the number of people who RSVP yes. That's your final guest count (not the number of people you invited). BUT most people still have couple of folks who RSVP yes and don't show up. Most caterers know your initial guest count is preliminary and will plan and bill your for the number of people you actually tell them after you receive the RSVPs. The average decline and no-show rate is about 20% (higher for DW and lower for in-town weddings). A higher decline rate tends to happen with more out-of-town guests. So it's very possible you will end up the number of people you originally thought you were inviting.

We way over invited (well FH did and didn’t give me a list until after we had booked the venue)
we also will send invites out, and are gently encouraging parents to enjoy a kid free night since out of 215 invitees, 60 are small children! If I had known I would have planned differently. Sigh. My fh procrastinated to the max, so he is responsible to come up with the difference in cost. (It was a long discussion and we agreed this is fair. It was a huge ordeal lol)